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  #1  
Old 12-26-2017,
5rJHpj7i27 5rJHpj7i27 is offline
 
Join Date: May 2017
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Default You Don't Need To Bet Against The Trend To Make Money!!!

Look, I know I'm new around here, but I just got to get something off my chest. A friend of mine nearly blew up his account in the last few weeks and he came and asked WTF?

So we went through his trades blow by blow and realized he was making horrible entries against broad trends and he said I don't know what I was thinking, just that it was due for a reverse I guess....

Then this week, I was on stocktwits. I love that place, great place to connect. As always with cnbc OFF and playing the FAZ and SKF vs FAS, BAC and JPM. Having a good day, short mostly but as always not fighting the momentum of the market.... I firmly believe that once the market has decided to go a certain way, you go with it. When it changes you exit, take your loss and go the other way. Such is the market.

All week this week I watched guys buy when the trend was sickly down and short when the trend was firmly up and I must say I just don't get these plays.

So, I'm not trying to be a dick. I probably know nothing more than anyone else about market mechanics; I'm not Aiki or Thierry, or BostonWealthGuy or anyone cool like that; but I just felt like screaming every time I saw someone go against the trend and lose.
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  #2  
Old 12-27-2017,
5a3Y55WTdt 5a3Y55WTdt is offline
 
Join Date: May 2017
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So, flame me, scold me, ban me but I just want to tell everyone a lesson learned long ago: The Market is always right. You do not know anything more than the market. The market already knows which way it is going, find a reason: An Evening Star, VWAP, a Bollinger Band, a MACD cross and go ahead and take it, but don't go anti-trend because you think its due, this is not a strategy.

You do not have to bet against the trend to make money.

Sorry, I'm not professor market but whew! I feel better now.
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  #3  
Old 12-28-2017,
474rCaHods 474rCaHods is offline
 
Join Date: May 2017
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So how are YOU doing?

When aiki14 posts those trades he's making, those are held for either minutes or seconds, and for pennies and dimes.

Who says you can't go long a Bull ETF on a declining day? There are always recoveries/retraces in a steady drop, and he's playing those by going long FAS intermittently on a day when everybody including the big guy was expecting a sell-off and was rewarded for it.
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  #4  
Old 12-28-2017,
58695236 58695236 is offline
 
Join Date: May 2017
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So I am cool, nice. My ego likes that.
I am not sure if I am one of those people who you're talking about, nor why you chose to mention me by name, but since I may be taking positions that appear to go against the trend I'll offer an explanation.
There are trends and there are trends, my timeframe lately has been extremely short so my trades may be based on 1 minute patterns and very low amplitude swings. I am playing for dimes and don't think I had more than 2 or 3 holds longer than 1/2 an hour per 100 trades last week.
This may make it appear I am bucking a trend, and it may be true of the daily or weekly chart but not on an intraday 1 min chart. Also while I trade a pretty simple system, I do have criteria based on stochastics, candle patterns and volume which I follow with risk assessment analysis and money management.
I share your belief that the market is not 100% predictable, nor even close, but I am only looking for a profitable statistical edge, and believe it is achievable and can back that up with 25yrs of investing records and 5yrs of full time trading records.
Your friend quite frankly was gambling, and maybe because the speed at which I have been doing things lately makes it appear that way to the casual observer, I assure you I am not.
Lastly, and as an aside, I hope I am not in the same class as Bostonweathguy, I find his talk about how many shares he has or how much money he made pretty crass even if true, which we can't really assess.
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  #5  
Old 12-28-2017,
420BroCef 420BroCef is offline
 
Join Date: Feb 2017
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Ha ha ha... LOL! No need to get personal, aiki! Just kidding. I think most of us are just tiny compare to the market. We would rarely get into a dual. It's me versus the market. The market... a collective entity made up of millions of traders.

A trade is a trade: you long, you short. It is one or zero. (Or maybe +1 or -1 as you can stay out of the market, which is 0.) Very clear cut.

But a trend is a different matter. Because a "trend" has a relative reference. It depends on your time-frame. There is trend on yearly charts, trend on daily chart, trend on 1-min chart. An uptrend on a 30-min chart may be a counter-trend on a daily chart. So when you see someone placing a trade and conclude: he is trading against the trend. You are only evaluating it from your time-frame perspective. But the trader may be using an entirely different time-frame and he is "going with" his trend. So it all depends on what time-frame we are using and what is the intended time holding for the trade.

IMO: The "going with the trend" trades are easier. They should be for beginners. The "fading the trend" trades are harder. They shoudl be for more experienced. The "trading while there is no trend" trades are hardest.
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