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Old 12-25-2017,
ahenErumS ahenErumS is offline
 
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This is a fairly weak candle pattern. If one were to force a definition upon the series you might call this a Harami as well. However, it fails to meet the strict definition of such a pattern since Tuesday's candle exceeds the range of the real body for Friday's candle (and frankly the candles are of relatively equal size both traveling a decent range). Going off queue, however, the long-ish upper shadow of the green candle on Friday combined with the long-ish lower shadow on Tuesday's red candle combined with Tuesday's close inside Friday's real body reinforce the netrality and directionless nature of the DJIA. If today's candle did anything it added further evidence to the idea that very short-term support can be expected in the 12,977-13,000 range and that a break below this level if failing to catch a bid at the 50-day would possibly fall 100 to 200 points (12,878 to 12,778 from August 2nd) before finding potential support.
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Old 12-28-2017,
AhmadClutt AhmadClutt is offline
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These two candle are nearly textbook examples of the formation of an Evening Star. An Evening Star is by definition a three candle pattern so of course this one is incomplete at the moment. The first candle is a long white (green) real body candle followed by a narrow body candle that gaps above the first candle to form a 'star.' The completion of the pattern occurs on the third day in the form of a black (red) candle that closes well into the real body of the first candle. If the middle candle were a Doji then the pattern is known as a Evening Doji Star. Either way this is a bearish reversal pattern. That it is forming at a level of potential resistance which includes the psychological level of $1,700/Oz. as well as where the market dropped to in the dramatic selloff on Feb 29 (point A) and failed to reclaim on March 26th and 27th (point B) adds weight to the potential signal.
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  #3  
Old 12-28-2017,
AhmadHolle AhmadHolle is offline
 
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How I would trade this would be to watch the price action tomorrow. If gold opens more or less flat on the session and sells off throughout the day I would then look to see if an Evening Star was forming. For the more risk tolerant trader you could take a short position in the late afternoon if it seemed rather clear that gold was going to complete the Evening Star pattern and close well into the body of the first of the three candles. If it appeared gold was going to close below the $1,670 to $1,675 range the probability increases that this was a near-term top in gold's advance as this would complete the Evening Star. For anyone not already in gold and looking to go long, sans a Bullish Belthold Line tomorrow I would wait another day to see what the price action tells us.
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Old 12-29-2017,
AhmadMeldr AhmadMeldr is offline
 
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Unfortunately for anyone reading this post looking for a grand revelation the following discussion is going to disappoint. Today's action in the markets we're following was mired in equilibrium with very little to add by way of changes in trend and it appears the markets are on pause ahead of ECB president Draghi's comments tomorrow. There were some subtle clues, however, which I'll discuss below.
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  #5  
Old 12-31-2017,
AhmadZhang AhmadZhang is offline
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Definitionally speaking the higher close in rates today confirmed the Harami that formed in yesterday's session. The problem I have with this weak confirmation is just that - it was weak. Traditionally one would like to see a close well into the body of the Bearish Belthold from two sessions ago preferably at or beyond the halfway mark of the long red candle (black). This did not occur. Secondly, such a narrow range, small-bodied white (green) candle hints at equilibrium in the Treasury market. This does little to help us discern a trend. In sum, it appears the downward pressure on rates has abated and the trend is now neutral with a modest bias toward higher rates.
Adding some Western technical analysis to the picture the RSI(14) again appears to be holding above the critical 40-45 level customary of an upward bias.
There is a faint signal coming from the Slow Stochastics with the %K line crossing above the %D line near oversold levels. Take it for what it's worth but in the weight of evidence approach this supports a slight upward bias in rates. Of course all of this could change in an instant if we get a surprise out of the ECB tomorrow.
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