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  #1  
Old 01-27-2018,
AdellDiede AdellDiede is offline
 
Join Date: Jan 2017
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Default are we heading for a recession?

Almost every analyst these days is saying that economy is heading for a recession. But can you provide any evidence of this statement? Almost every earning report is ok with expectations, housing market is still very strong and slight slowdown is not too obvious. Unemployment is only 4%. What type of recession we are heading ? Full employement recession ? Mega earning recession ? Where is a recession ? Can somebody tell me ?

FYI
Through the eyes of Caterpillar (CAT - news - Cramer's Take), the economy is running at full steam.

The heavy-machinery giant reported another strong performance for its second quarter, and with a long backlog of orders for engines and industrial machinery heading into the back half of 2006, the company raised its sales and earnings guidance for the year.
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  #2  
Old 01-28-2018,
AdelePeter AdelePeter is offline
 
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The fact interest rates are up and likely going higher, if not now, then certainly later is cause for concern. That, coupled with record oil prices make Wall St. nervous. I'm not aware of "almost every analyst" thinking the economy is headed for recession. In fact, many I hear on CNBC are calling for a soft landing or Goldilocks' Economy.

But one must at least be cognizant of the fact high oil, over a long period of time, has the potential to drain the consumer and increase input costs on the industrial end. I'd hardly be worried about recession; the average contraction is only 11 months. I'd be more focused on stagflation with the cost per barrel of oil these days.
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Old 01-29-2018,
AdelineCar AdelineCar is offline
 
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Caterpillar is a global firm and given the fact the Chinese and Indian economies are growing at a ten and eight percent clip respectively, I'd say CAT is getting much of their business from overseas orders. You can also factor in the other two pieces of BRIC, Brazil and Russia, and you have a superfecta that allows CAT to stay bouyant regardless of the US real estate market or the softening economy at home.
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  #4  
Old 02-02-2018,
AdelaideCh AdelaideCh is offline
 
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no recession. slower growth or normal growth yes. however, if the fed does not raise rates in august dont be surprised to hear the street saying the fed isnt raising rates because the economy is slowing to quickly and the economy wasnt as strong as everyone thought. that talk it starting to surface
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  #5  
Old 02-02-2018,
AdelaBatte AdelaBatte is offline
 
Join Date: Apr 2017
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It could happen. I noticed the price of certain food items in the store have increased a lot. Inflation is here. For example, some cookies I bought used to cost $2.00 -$2.25 a bag at Walmart. Those same cookies now cost $2.75 a bag. That's a significant % price increase.

Commodity prices have been rising steadily the last few years. The cost of copper pipe went way up! Of course the higher fuel costs is effecting most businesses. They either have to pass the cost on to their consumers, or they will have lower margins on their products/services. I ship with FEDEX. The cost of my shipping has gone up 50% in the last 3 years.

Since most people in the USA haven't changed their driving habbits yet, they will have less discretionary income due to the higher gas prices. So they have less money to buy things. So sales will drop in some companies causing them to possibly lay off people. Unemployment rises and spending confidence drops causing more unemployment which can lead to a recession. I think if oil stays in the $70-$80 range, a global recession is likely to happen. If oil drops back to the $50s, it might not happen. A war with Syria and Iran could change everything.
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